Implementing explicit adaptation into Integrated Assessment Models

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are commonly used to assess the costs and benefits of climate change policies. The strong point of IAMs is that they can deal with important issues such as the efficient allocation of abatement burdens over regions, by specifying the costs and benefits of various abatement strategies on a regional basis, using a detailed description of both economic and environmental developments. The current generation IAMs focus on the trade-off between damages due to climate change and mitigation costs, and largely ignore adaptation options or at best treat them implicitly as part of the damage estimate. For individual regions it may, however, be optimal to both adapt to climate change as well as mitigate.

Within the Environmental and Natural Resource Management (ENR) group a methodology has been developed to implement an explicit adaptation variable into an Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) framework. Large-scale global IAMs cannot grasp the full details of all adaptation options that are conceivable, and this is besides the focal point of these models. To be able to capture the main elements of adaptation costs and benefits, and thus enable the investigation of trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation, requires a convenient summary of the characteristics of adaptation from a top-down perspective.

This research project introduces and applies a methodology for a generalised description of (types of) adaptation options and the associated adaptation costs. This results in the construction of so-called “adaptation cost curves” for several main regions in the world.

This concept of an adaptation cost curve was first described in de Bruin et al. (2009; Climatic Change) and throughout the project, this work continues to expand in breadth and depth (see the publications below). The methodology of the AD-IAM project consists of using using the existing DICE and RICE models (Nordhaus and Boyer, 2000; Nordhaus, 2007) and making adaptation explicit, thus building the AD-DICE and AD-RICE models. Starting at its simplest form, the representation of explicit adaptation has been extended in collaboration with the OECD to include both the stock (proactive) and flow (reactive) nature of adaptation. Furthermore in depth empirical research has been conducted to better reflect the costs and benefits associated with adaptation. Moreover, through collaboration, this methodology has been implemented in other IAMs as well, e.g. AD-FAIR (Hof et al., 2009) in collaboration with MNP and AD-WITCH in collaboration with FEEM.

Finally, note that the project is still on-going, and further output is expected on the analysis of the strategic aspects of adaptation in international negotiations on an international mitigation agreement.

For general information on the AD-IAMs project, contact Kelly de Bruin.

Financial support of the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) under project number VAM-454-04-017, and of the Environment Directorate of the OECD is kindly acknowledged.

Last updated 27 November 2009.

Publications

De Bruin, K.C., R.B. Dellink and R.S.J. Tol (2009). AD-DICE: An Implementation of Adaptation in the DICE Model. Climatic Change 95(1-2): 63-81.

De Bruin, K.C. and R.B. Dellink (presentation for the FEEM workshop on the Economics of Adaptation, April 2009, Venice). An Economic Study of Reactive and Proactive Adaptation.

De Bruin, K.C., R.B. Dellink and E. van Ierland (forthcoming). Incentives for international cooperation on adaptation and mitigation. In: Martens et al. Vulnerability, Adaptation and Mitigation Research.

Hof, A.F., K.C. de Bruin, R.B. Dellink, M.G.J. den Elzen and D.P. van Vuuren (forthcoming). Costs, Benefits and Inter-linkages between Adaptation and Mitigation, in: F. Biermann, P. Pattberg, and F. Zelli (eds.), Global Climate Governance Post 2012: Architecture, Agency and Adaptation, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

Felgenhauer, T and K. C. de Bruin (2009). Optimal Paths of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation under Certainty and Uncertainty. International Journal of Global Warming 1(1-3): 66-88.

Hof, A.F., K.C. de Bruin, R.B. Dellink, M.G.J. den Elzen and D.P. van Vuuren (2009). The effect of different mitigation strategies on international financing of adaptation. Environmental Science & Policy 12: 832-843.

De Bruin, K.C., R.B. Dellink and S. Agrawala (2009). Economic Aspects of Adaptation to Climate Change: Integrated Assessment Modelling of Adaptation Costs and Benefits. OECD, Paris, Working Paper, No. 6, ENV/EPOC/GSP(2008)17/FINAL.

De Bruin, K.C., R.B. Dellink, R.S.J. Tol (2009). International cooperation on climate change adaptation from an economic perspective, ESRI Working Paper 323, Dublin.

De Bruin, K.C. and R.B. Dellink (2009). How harmful are adaptation restrictions? FEEM working paper 58.2009.

De Bruin, K.C. and R.B. Dellink (2009). The marginal costs of adaptation: empirical calibration of adaptation cost curves of the AD-RICE and AD-DICE Models.

Collaborators

International cooperation